Small- and midcap stocks have delivered their biggest monthly rally in 12 years, but rising oil prices and global tensions could make the road ahead volatile.
'Markets never fully lose hope. But an important shift could come if the Strait remains closed -- moving from high prices to no prices.'
Despite geopolitical tensions and FII outflows, Indian small and midcap stocks have not only recovered losses but are also outperforming largecap indices, driven by attractive valuations, domestic institutional support, and a rebound in earnings.
'In India's case, an extended earnings slowdown accompanied by rich valuations have dimmed returns since late 2024.'
'... with the rest split between mid and smallcaps, as valuations are becoming more attractive across segments.'
'Mark Mobius's life was dedicated to investing.'
'In investing, poor sentiment is always a good vintage to build a portfolio.'
'The March correction was clearly due to the war and with prospects of that coming to a conclusion, there is a natural rally.'
Fixed deposits from nationalised banks delivered higher returns than equities, outperforming both inflation and stock market benchmarks.
Analysts warn that global markets are significantly underpricing the risk of an oil price shock, with Brent crude potentially soaring to $150 per barrel if the West Asia conflict escalates or damages critical oil and gas infrastructure. This could lead to severe inflation and economic repercussions, particularly for import-dependent nations like India.
Domestic institutional investors, on the other hand, made a net investment of Rs 1.13 trillion during this period.
Foreign brokerages have started to cut their year-end targets for the Nifty 50 index amid the ongoing West Asia conflict.
The BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 declined around 4.5 per cent each since the start of the West Asia conflict.
A fall in the Nifty 50 to around 19,000 is not impossible, but that would likely require nuclear options to be exercised.
'Oil is still well below its all-time highs, and the world is gradually running out of known reserves.'
Even as the benchmark and broader indices were down sharply on Monday due to escalating tensions in West Asia, the Nifty Defence index ended the session in the green.
Jefferies has downgraded Indian information technology (IT) companies Infosys, HCLTech, and Mphasis to "hold"; LTI MindTree, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Hexaware to "underperform", citing artificial intelligence (AI)-related concerns. Coforge, Sagility and IKS, however, still remain its top picks.
Stocks of fast-moving consumer goods companies have taken it on the chin in calendar year 2026 (CY26) with the Nifty FMCG index falling over 6 per cent compared to the Nifty 50 dipping 0.8 per cent. Nifty FMCG is one of the worst-performing sectors on the NSE in CY26.
The Nifty IT index hit a more than nine-month low, trading at its weakest level since April 17, 2025.
The bull-market in gold is not yet over and prices can rise to $6,200 an ounce (oz) by mid-2026, up nearly 25 per cent from current levels, according to UBS.
© 2026 Rediff.com - Advertise with us - Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Sitemap - Feedback - About us - Terms of use - Grievances